VALUFOURYoY+$1.832B · +21.3%
QoQ+$0.627B · +6.4%
NASDAQ · ASML
ASML
EUV & DUV lithography systems
- Earnings release date
- 2026.07.15
- Market data date
- 2026.10.13
- Last checked
- 2026.10.13
PUBLICATION GATEOfficial Facts MatchedUses official IR/US GAAP materials and the approved market snapshot.
View Matched Facts
Official sources and earnings release dateMatchedRevenueMatchedTTM revenueMatchedShares outstandingMatchedClosing price and market-data dateMatched
01
EARNINGS & GROWTH
Revenue · Profitability · Key Metrics
YoY+$1.086B · +17.3%
QoQ+$0.320B · +4.5%
YoY+$0.746B · +31.8%
QoQ+$0.307B · +11.0%
YoY+0.3%p
QoQ+1.0%p
02
EARNINGS ANALYSIS
Stock Analysis · Growth Drivers · Business Model
Installed-base business gained a larger share of revenue
System and Installed Base Management sales both increased, but the installed-base business grew faster and gained a larger share of total sales. ASML attributed sales above the top end of guidance primarily to higher-than-expected installed-base revenue. Services and upgrades for existing equipment contributed more to revenue alongside new system sales.
Higher revenue recognition from lithography systems
EUV and non-EUV lithography equipment both contributed to system sales, with revenue split almost equally between Logic and Memory customers. EUV revenue included one High-NA system. As advanced Logic and DRAM investment translates into equipment revenue, sales depend on system generations and product composition as well as the number of systems recognized.
Upgrades drove installed-base sales growth
ASML attributed installed-base sales above guidance primarily to additional upgrade demand for existing equipment. Customers pay ASML not only for new systems but also to improve the performance and productivity of equipment already in use. As the installed base expands and becomes more advanced, maintenance, parts and upgrades provide a separate revenue base.
High-margin installed-base sales supported gross margin
ASML attributed gross margin above guidance primarily to very high-margin components within its Installed Base Management business. System sales and service and upgrades have different profitability structures, so the source of revenue growth affects its contribution to earnings. The composition of installed-base products and services supported overall profitability this quarter.
03
VALUATION · RETURN CALCULATOR
P/E · Multiples · Long-Term Investing
$1717.76 × 384.10M
See calculation
FY2025 Q3 $8.422B
+ FY2025 Q4 $10.890B
+ FY2026 Q1 $9.824B
+ FY2026 Q2 $10.451B
= TTM $39.588B
- Current market cap
- $659.8B
- TTM revenue
- $39.588B
$659.8B ÷ $39.588B
- Current market cap
- $659.8B
- GAAP TTM net income
- $11.921B
$659.8B ÷ $11.921B
GAAP TTM net margin 30.1%TTM vs. Annualized Revenue
Recent-quarter and guidance annualizations are simple quarter-revenue ×4 comparisons, not forecasts for the next 12 months.
View high-point comparison
HIGH-POINT COMPARISON
Sources and calculations checkedAll-Time Closing High
2026-06-30Quarter revenue $9.989B ×4
Guidance revenue midpoint $9.913B ×4
At peakCurrentChange
TTM revenue$38.389B$39.588B+3.1%
Latest quarter$9.989B$10.451B+4.6%
Public guidance$9.913B$12.887B+30.0%
Information already public at the peak Uses Q1 2026 results and Q2 guidance available at the peak. Subsequently released Q2 results are not applied retrospectively.
Advanced Logic and Memory investment, EUV equipment demand and customer demand for installed-base upgrades were key variables.
The peak valuation reflected expectations that investment in advanced logic and memory would support demand for EUV systems, while High-NA adoption and installed-base services would underpin longer-term growth and profitability.
Close $1986.87 × 385.42M shares outstanding = approximately $765.8B market cap at the peak.
CURRENT MARKET CAP REQUIREMENTS
Current Market Cap BasisRequirements Implied by the Current Market Cap
Implied 2030 Revenue CAGR12.6%
This is the 2030 revenue implied by the current market cap under the displayed valuation assumptions.
Share-count changes and dividends are not included in this calculation.
Conditional Business Scenarios
Conservative · Base · OptimisticCurrent TTM$39.588B
Latest-quarter annualized$41.805B
Guidance-midpoint annualized$51.548B
Assumed 2030 revenue$67.6BRevenue CAGR from TTM 14.3%
CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 12.8%CAGR from annualized guidance midpoint 7.0%
- Assumed 2030 net margin
- 35.5%Current 30.1%
- Assumed 2030 P/E
- 31.0xCurrent 55.3x
- Converted P/S
- 11.0x
Conditional Shareholder Return BridgeImplied Share Value Change Shareholder Return Components
Conditional Market Cap$744.0BVs. current +12.8%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares355.72MVs. current -7.4%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$2091.50Current $1717.76 · +21.8%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+24.1%Implied Share Value Change +21.8% · Dividend Contribution +2.4 ppAnnualized +5.2%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details
Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.
- Market Cap
- $659.8B$744.0B
- Shares
- 384.10M355.72M
- Implied Share Value Change
- +21.8%
- Implied Share Value Change
- +21.8%
- Dividend Contribution
- +2.4 pp
- Conditional Total Shareholder Return
- +24.1%
Assumes relatively fewer Low-NA and High-NA EUV systems recognized in revenue, with gradual sales expansion in non-EUV and installed-base businesses.
Assumed 2030 revenue$71.4BRevenue CAGR from TTM 15.9%
CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 14.3%CAGR from annualized guidance midpoint 8.5%
- Assumed 2030 net margin
- 37.0%Current 30.1%
- Assumed 2030 P/E
- 33.0xCurrent 55.3x
- Converted P/S
- 12.2x
Conditional Shareholder Return BridgeImplied Share Value Change Shareholder Return Components
Conditional Market Cap$871.1BVs. current +32.0%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares353.49MVs. current -8.0%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$2464.24Current $1717.76 · +43.5%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+45.8%Implied Share Value Change +43.5% · Dividend Contribution +2.4 ppAnnualized +9.3%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details
Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.
- Market Cap
- $659.8B$871.1B
- Shares
- 384.10M353.49M
- Implied Share Value Change
- +43.5%
- Implied Share Value Change
- +43.5%
- Dividend Contribution
- +2.4 pp
- Conditional Total Shareholder Return
- +45.8%
Assumes expanding Low-NA and High-NA EUV system recognition, alongside growth in non-EUV sales and installed-base service and upgrades.
Assumed 2030 revenue$75.5BRevenue CAGR from TTM 17.5%
CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 15.9%CAGR from annualized guidance midpoint 10.0%
- Assumed 2030 net margin
- 38.4%Current 30.1%
- Assumed 2030 P/E
- 35.0xCurrent 55.3x
- Converted P/S
- 13.5x
Conditional Shareholder Return BridgeImplied Share Value Change Shareholder Return Components
Conditional Market Cap$1.02TVs. current +54.0%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares351.39MVs. current -8.5%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$2891.09Current $1717.76 · +68.3%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+70.7%Implied Share Value Change +68.3% · Dividend Contribution +2.4 ppAnnualized +13.5%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details
Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.
- Market Cap
- $659.8B$1.02T
- Shares
- 384.10M351.39M
- Implied Share Value Change
- +68.3%
- Implied Share Value Change
- +68.3%
- Dividend Contribution
- +2.4 pp
- Conditional Total Shareholder Return
- +70.7%
Assumes further expansion in EUV system recognition, including High-NA, with greater revenue contributions from non-EUV and installed-base service and upgrades.
Scenario inputs are conditional assumptions, not company guidance or market consensus.
Conditional Shareholder Return Calculator
P/E and P/S are linked through the assumed net margin.
Conditional Shareholder Return BridgeImplied Share Value Change Shareholder Return Components
Conditional Market Cap$871.1BVs. current +32.0%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares0.35BVs. current -8.0%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$2464.24Current $1717.76 · +43.5%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+45.8%Implied Share Value Change +43.5% · Dividend Contribution +2.4 ppAnnualized +9.3%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details
Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.
- Market Cap
- $659.8B$871.1B
- Shares
- 0.38B0.35B
- Implied Share Value Change
- +43.5%
- Implied Share Value Change
- +43.5%
- Dividend Contribution
- +2.4 pp
- Conditional Total Shareholder Return
- +45.8%
This is a conditional arithmetic result based on the displayed assumptions, not a forecast of future share price.
Original Sources
Official ASML IR/SEC statements use EUR · public amounts are USD, converted once at fixed EUR/USD 1.1206 · existing peak data retain historical FX. Conditional inputs: FY2026 ending cash of $13.4472B and FY2027 opening shares of 384.1M are unconfirmed proxies. The difference between the FY2026 EUV revenue anchor and recognized units times ASP remains unresolved. Future repurchases depend on reauthorization and assumed execution conditions.
Methodology, Terms and Operating Principles
What is GAAP?
GAAP refers to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. GAAP financial results include items such as stock-based compensation and amortization that companies may adjust out of non-GAAP measures.
Company-Specific Valuation Assumptions
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EUR Ledger and USD Presentation
ASML’s official financial disclosures and economic model are denominated in EUR. Monetary values on VALUFOUR are presented in USD using a fixed exchange rate of 1 EUR = 1.1206 USD. Historical high-point comparisons retain the exchange rate applicable at that time.