VALUFOURYoY+$13.566B · +17.7%
QoQ+$7.121B · +8.6%
NASDAQ · MSFT
Microsoft
Enterprise software · Cloud · AI platform
- Earnings release date
- 2026.07.29
- Market data date
- 2026.10.13
- Last checked
- 2026.10.13
PUBLICATION GATEOfficial Facts MatchedThe key facts shown on this page match issuer IR/SEC materials and market data.
View Matched Facts
Official sources and filing dateMatchedRevenueMatchedTTM revenueMatchedShares outstandingMatchedClosing price and market-data dateMatched
01
EARNINGS & GROWTH
Revenue · Profitability · Key Metrics
YoY+$12.6B · +27.0%
QoQ+$4.8B · +8.8%
YoY+$6.280B · +18.3%
QoQ+$2.205B · +5.7%
YoY−3%p
QoQ−1%p
02
EARNINGS ANALYSIS
Stock Analysis · Growth Drivers · Business Model
Growth Held Up on a Larger Revenue Base
Company-wide revenue continued to expand on an already large base. Growth remained broad across cloud and enterprise software rather than depending on a single product.
Cloud Remained a Core Growth Engine
Azure and Microsoft’s AI applications and services continued to support Microsoft Cloud growth. In some regions and services, Azure demand still exceeded available capacity, prompting continued infrastructure expansion.
Operating Profit Kept Pace With Revenue Growth
Operating income grew at roughly the same pace as revenue despite continued investment in AI infrastructure and product development. Software economics and efficiency gains continued to offset part of the investment burden.
AI Infrastructure Costs Lowered Cloud Margins
Higher data-center and computing costs needed to expand AI services lowered Microsoft Cloud gross margin. Efficiency gains in Azure and Microsoft 365 offset part of that pressure, but AI growth continued to carry substantial infrastructure costs.
03
VALUATION · RETURN CALCULATOR
P/E · Multiples · Long-Term Investing
$543.45 × 7.43B
See calculation
FY2026 Q1 Revenue $77.673B
+ FY2026 Q2 Revenue $81.273B
+ FY2026 Q3 Revenue $82.886B
+ FY2026 Q4 Revenue $90.007B
= TTM $331.839B
- Current market cap
- $4.04T
- TTM revenue
- $331.839B
$4.04T ÷ $331.839B = 12.2x
- Current market cap
- $4.04T
- GAAP TTM net income
- $133.749B
$4.04T ÷ $133.749B = 30.2x
GAAP TTM net margin 40.3%TTM vs. Annualized Revenue
Recent-quarter and guidance annualizations are simple quarter-revenue ×4 comparisons, not forecasts for the next 12 months.
View high-point comparison
HIGH-POINT COMPARISON
Sources and calculations checkedAll-Time Closing High
2025-10-28Quarter revenue $76.441B ×4
Guidance revenue midpoint $75.250B ×4
At peakCurrentChange
TTM revenue$281.724B$331.839B+17.8%
Latest quarter$76.441B$90.007B+17.7%
Public guidance$75.250B$90.4B+20.1%
Only information available at the peak is used. FY2026 Q1 and subsequent results announced after the peak are not applied retroactively. Only FY2025 results and FY2026 Q1 guidance available at that date are used.
At the peak, Azure and Microsoft 365 growth, Copilot monetization, the expanding contract backlog and AI infrastructure investment were the key disclosed variables.
Microsoft's revenue base has expanded since the peak, while the revenue and earnings multiples paid by the market have declined. This is not treated as proof of undervaluation; growth normalization and infrastructure costs still need to be tested.
Close $542.07 × 7.43B shares outstanding = approximately $4.03T market cap at the peak.
CURRENT MARKET CAP REQUIREMENTS
Current Market Cap BasisRequirements Implied by the Current Market Cap
Implied 2030 Revenue CAGR10.3% annuallyTTM revenue growth +17.8% YoY
This is the 2030 revenue implied by the current market cap under the displayed valuation assumptions.
Share-count changes and dividends are not included in this calculation.
Conditional Business Scenarios
Conservative · Base · OptimisticCurrent TTM$331.8B
Latest-quarter annualized$360.0B
Guidance-midpoint annualized$361.6B
Assumed 2030 revenue$500.0BRevenue CAGR from TTM 10.8%
CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 8.6%CAGR from annualized guidance midpoint 8.4%
- Assumed 2030 net margin
- 35.0%Current 40.3%
- Assumed 2030 P/E
- 25.0xCurrent 30.2x
- Converted P/S
- 8.8x
Conditional Shareholder Return BridgeImplied Share Value Change Shareholder Return Components
Conditional Market Cap$4.38TVs. current +8.4%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares7.50BVs. current +1.0%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$583.56Current $543.45 · +7.4%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+10.4%Implied Share Value Change +7.4% · Dividend Contribution +3.0 ppAnnualized +2.5%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details
Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.
- Market Cap
- $4.04T$4.38T
- Shares
- 7.43B7.50B
- Implied Share Value Change
- +7.4%
- Implied Share Value Change
- +7.4%
- Dividend Contribution
- +3.0 pp
- Conditional Total Shareholder Return
- +10.4%
Azure and AI services continue to grow, but company-wide revenue growth gradually slows and higher AI infrastructure investment and depreciation limit margin expansion.
Assumed 2030 revenue$575.0BRevenue CAGR from TTM 14.7%
CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 12.4%CAGR from annualized guidance midpoint 12.3%
- Assumed 2030 net margin
- 37.0%Current 40.3%
- Assumed 2030 P/E
- 27.0xCurrent 30.2x
- Converted P/S
- 10.0x
Conditional Shareholder Return BridgeImplied Share Value Change Shareholder Return Components
Conditional Market Cap$5.74TVs. current +42.3%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares7.48BVs. current +0.7%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$768.43Current $543.45 · +41.4%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+44.4%Implied Share Value Change +41.4% · Dividend Contribution +3.0 ppAnnualized +9.6%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details
Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.
- Market Cap
- $4.04T$5.74T
- Shares
- 7.43B7.48B
- Implied Share Value Change
- +41.4%
- Implied Share Value Change
- +41.4%
- Dividend Contribution
- +3.0 pp
- Conditional Total Shareholder Return
- +44.4%
Azure and Microsoft 365 continue to grow as Copilot and AI monetization expand, while revenue growth and high software margins absorb rising AI infrastructure investment.
Assumed 2030 revenue$650.0BRevenue CAGR from TTM 18.3%
CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 15.9%CAGR from annualized guidance midpoint 15.8%
- Assumed 2030 net margin
- 39.0%Current 40.3%
- Assumed 2030 P/E
- 29.0xCurrent 30.2x
- Converted P/S
- 11.3x
Conditional Shareholder Return BridgeImplied Share Value Change Shareholder Return Components
Conditional Market Cap$7.35TVs. current +82.2%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares7.46BVs. current +0.5%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$984.83Current $543.45 · +81.2%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+84.2%Implied Share Value Change +81.2% · Dividend Contribution +3.0 ppAnnualized +16.5%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details
Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.
- Market Cap
- $4.04T$7.35T
- Shares
- 7.43B7.46B
- Implied Share Value Change
- +81.2%
- Implied Share Value Change
- +81.2%
- Dividend Contribution
- +3.0 pp
- Conditional Total Shareholder Return
- +84.2%
Azure, Copilot and the AI platform sustain strong growth at Microsoft's large scale, while high profitability holds despite greater AI infrastructure investment.
This analysis presents long-term valuation scenarios. Scenario inputs are conditional assumptions and are not company guidance or market consensus.
Conditional Shareholder Return Calculator
P/E and P/S are linked through the assumed net margin.
Conditional Shareholder Return BridgeImplied Share Value Change Shareholder Return Components
Conditional Market Cap$5.74TVs. current market cap +42.3%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares7.48BVs. current +0.7%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$768.43Current $543.45 · +41.4%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+44.4%Implied Share Value Change +41.4% · Dividend Contribution +3.0 ppAnnualized +9.6%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details
Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.
- Market Cap
- $4.04T$5.74T
- Shares
- 7.43B7.48B
- Implied Share Value Change
- +41.4%
- Implied Share Value Change
- +41.4%
- Dividend Contribution
- +3.0 pp
- Conditional Total Shareholder Return
- +44.4%
This is a conditional arithmetic result based on the displayed assumptions, not a forecast of future share price.
Capital-return constraints apply. Existing repurchase authorization and cash capacity may limit buybacks, and dividends may use prior liquidity.
Original Sources
Official Microsoft IR/SEC materials and market data.
Methodology, Terms and Operating Principles
What is GAAP?
GAAP refers to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. GAAP financial results include items such as stock-based compensation and amortization that companies may adjust out of non-GAAP measures.
Company-Specific Valuation Assumptions
VALUFOUR does not apply the same valuation multiples to every company. Conditional scenarios are analytical assumptions based on each company’s business model, revenue scale, growth rate, profitability, durability of growth and historical valuation range. They are not forecasts or recommendations.
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