NASDAQ · SPCX

SpaceX

Satellite Connectivity · AI Infrastructure · Space Launch

Earnings release date: 2026.08.04
Market data date: 2026.10.13
Last checked: 2026.10.13

PUBLICATION GATEOfficial Facts MatchedThe key facts shown on this page match issuer IR/SEC materials and market data.

View Matched Facts

Official sources and filing dateMatchedRevenueMatchedTTM revenueMatchedShares outstandingMatchedClosing price and market-data dateMatched

EARNINGS & GROWTH

Revenue · Profitability · Key Metrics

Revenue$7.814B

YoY+$3.743B · +91.9%

QoQ+$3.120B · +66.5%

Connectivity Revenue$4.291B

YoY+$1.703B · +65.8%

QoQ+$1.034B · +31.7%

AI Revenue$2.561B

YoY+$1.824B · +247.5%

QoQ+$1.743B · +213.1%

GAAP Operating Result−$143M

YoYLoss narrowed by $827M · 85.3%

QoQLoss narrowed by $1.800B · 92.6%

EARNINGS ANALYSIS

Stock Analysis · Growth Drivers · Business Model

Revenue

Connectivity and AI Broadened Growth

Connectivity remained the largest growth engine while AI became a more meaningful revenue contributor. Growth is now being supported by both the expanding connectivity business and the emerging AI business.

Connectivity Revenue

Connectivity Scaled Without Further ARPU Pressure

Starlink subscriber expansion and Enterprise & Government growth both supported Connectivity, while monetization remained stable sequentially despite international expansion and a broader mix of lower-priced plans.

AI Revenue

AI Infrastructure Began Converting Into Revenue

AI infrastructure began generating Cloud Services revenue, moving the business from capacity build-out toward revenue-producing customer workloads. This marks an important shift in how the AI infrastructure base contributes economically.

GAAP Operating Result

Operating Loss Compressed Sharply

Stronger Connectivity economics and growing AI revenue materially reduced the operating loss. At the same time, heavy spending on AI compute and Starship continues, so the improvement in operating results needs to be viewed alongside the company’s still-high investment requirements.

VALUATION · RETURN CALCULATOR

P/E · Multiples · Long-Term Investing

Current Market Cap$2.06T

$156.54 × 13.18B

TTM Revenue$23.044B

TTM Calculation

FY2025 Q3 + Q4 Revenue $10.536B
+ FY2026 Q1 Revenue $4.694B
+ FY2026 Q2 Revenue $7.814B
= TTM $23.044B

Current P/S89.5x

Current Market Cap: $2.06T
TTM Revenue: $23.044B

$2.06T ÷ $23.044B = 89.5x

Current P/EN/M*

Current Market Cap: $2.06T
TTM GAAP Net Result: $-8.218B

GAAP TTM net margin -35.7%

* P/E cannot be calculated when GAAP net income is zero or negative.

TTM vs. Annualized Revenue

Trailing twelve monthsTTM revenue$23.044B

FY2026 Q2Annualized latest-quarter revenue$31.256BQuarter revenue $7.814B ×4

Company guidanceNo guidance provided

The latest-quarter annualization is a simple quarter-revenue ×4 comparison, not a forecast for the next 12 months.

View high-point comparison

HIGH-POINT COMPARISON

All-Time Closing High

2026-06-16

Sources and calculations checked

Peak Close$211.39

Peak Market Cap$2.72T

P/S at Peak140.9x

P/E at peakN/M*

* P/E cannot be calculated when GAAP net income is zero or negative.

Trailing twelve months at the peakTTM revenue at the peak$19.301B

FY2026 Q1Annualized latest quarter at the peak$18.776B

Quarter revenue $4.694B ×4

Public guidance at the peakNo guidance provided

At peakCurrentChange

TTM Revenue$19.301B$23.044B+19.4%

Latest quarter$4.694B$7.814B+66.5%

Only information available to the market as of June 16, 2026 is used. Q2 2026 results are not incorporated.

Key Variables at the Peak

The valuation reflected expectations for Connectivity expansion, longer-term Starship applications and growth in AI infrastructure.

Growth and Profitability Conditions Implied by the Peak Multiple

TTM GAAP net income was negative at the peak, so P/E was not meaningful. The P/S reflected future business expansion more than reported earnings.

Close $211.39 × 12.87B shares outstanding = approximately $2.72T market cap at the peak.

Conditional Business Scenarios

Conservative · Base · Optimistic

SPCX assumptions

Current TTM$23.044B

Annualized Latest-Quarter Revenue$31.256B

Conservative

Assumed 2030 Revenue$66.24BRevenue CAGR from TTM 30.2%

CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 20.7%

Assumed Net Margin: 4.6%Current -35.7%
Converted P/E: 90.6xCurrent N/M*
Assumed P/S: 4.2x

Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge

Conditional Market Cap$276.2BVs. current -86.6%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.

Conditional Projected Shares13.18BVs. current +0.0%Reflects company-specific share-count assumptions.

Conditional Implied Share Value$20.95Current $156.54 · -86.6%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.

Conditional Total Shareholder Return-86.6%Implied Share Value Change -86.6% · Dividend Contribution +0.0 ppAnnualized -39.5%

View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change

Market Cap: $2.06T$276.2B
Shares: 13.18B13.18B
Implied Share Value Change: -86.6%

Shareholder Return Components

Implied Share Value Change: -86.6%
Dividend Contribution: +0.0 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return: -86.6%

Connectivity recurring revenue grows, while AI investment and Starship-related research and development spending remain elevated.

Base

Assumed 2030 Revenue$70.47BRevenue CAGR from TTM 32.2%

CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 22.5%

Assumed Net Margin: 7.0%Current -35.7%
Converted P/E: 65.0xCurrent N/M*
Assumed P/S: 4.5x

Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge

Conditional Market Cap$320.6BVs. current -84.5%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.

Conditional Projected Shares13.18BVs. current +0.0%Reflects company-specific share-count assumptions.

Conditional Implied Share Value$24.32Current $156.54 · -84.5%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.

Conditional Total Shareholder Return-84.5%Implied Share Value Change -84.5% · Dividend Contribution +0.0 ppAnnualized -37.2%

View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change

Market Cap: $2.06T$320.6B
Shares: 13.18B13.18B
Implied Share Value Change: -84.5%

Shareholder Return Components

Implied Share Value Change: -84.5%
Dividend Contribution: +0.0 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return: -84.5%

Connectivity profitability absorbs part of the investment burden from AI and Space, while AI computing revenue expands gradually within a capital-intensive structure.

Optimistic

Assumed 2030 Revenue$74.92BRevenue CAGR from TTM 34.3%

CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 24.4%

Assumed Net Margin: 9.0%Current -35.7%
Converted P/E: 54.6xCurrent N/M*
Assumed P/S: 4.9x

Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge

Conditional Market Cap$368.3BVs. current -82.2%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.

Conditional Projected Shares13.18BVs. current +0.0%Reflects company-specific share-count assumptions.

Conditional Implied Share Value$27.94Current $156.54 · -82.2%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.

Conditional Total Shareholder Return-82.2%Implied Share Value Change -82.2% · Dividend Contribution +0.0 ppAnnualized -35.0%

View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change

Market Cap: $2.06T$368.3B
Shares: 13.18B13.18B
Implied Share Value Change: -82.2%

Shareholder Return Components

Implied Share Value Change: -82.2%
Dividend Contribution: +0.0 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return: -82.2%

Connectivity unit economics hold, AI revenue scales rapidly, and the operating burden from Space gradually declines.

This analysis presents long-term valuation scenarios. Scenario inputs are conditional assumptions and are not company guidance or market consensus.

Original Sources

SpaceX Q2 2026 Form 10-Q ↗

Official SpaceX IR/SEC materials and market data.

Methodology and Terms

What is GAAP?

GAAP refers to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. GAAP financial results include items such as stock-based compensation and amortization that companies may adjust out of non-GAAP measures.

Company-Specific Valuation Assumptions

VALUFOUR does not apply the same valuation multiples to every company. Conditional scenarios are analytical assumptions based on each company’s business model, revenue scale, growth rate, profitability, durability of growth and historical valuation range. They are not forecasts or recommendations.

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SOTP

Connectivity is calculated using conditional net-income and P/E assumptions, while AI and Space use conditional revenue and P/S assumptions. The scenario displays the combined conditional market capitalization.