VALUFOUR
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Source ↗
NASDAQ · TSLA

Tesla

Electric vehicles, energy storage and vehicle software

Earnings release date
2026.07.22
Market data date
2026.10.13
Last checked
2026.10.13
PUBLICATION GATEOfficial Facts MatchedThe key facts shown on this page match issuer IR/SEC materials and market data.
View Matched Facts
Official sources and filing dateMatchedRevenueMatchedTTM revenueMatchedShares outstandingMatchedClosing price and market-data dateMatched
01

EARNINGS & GROWTH

Revenue · Profitability · Key Metrics

Revenue$28.236B
YoY+$5.740B · +26%
QoQ+$5.849B · +26.1%
Automotive Revenue$20.516B
YoY+$3.855B · +23%
QoQ+$4.282B · +26.4%
Energy Revenue$3.139B
YoY+$0.350B · +13%
QoQ+$0.731B · +30.4%
GAAP Operating Income$0.398B
YoY−$0.525B · −57%
QoQ−$0.543B · −57.7%
02

EARNINGS ANALYSIS

Stock Analysis · Growth Drivers · Business Model

Revenue

Multiple Businesses Contributed to Growth

Automotive remained the largest revenue contributor, while Energy and Services and Other also supported growth. The quarter’s revenue expansion reflected contributions from multiple parts of the business rather than automotive alone.

Automotive Revenue

Vehicle Deliveries Drove Automotive Revenue Growth

Higher vehicle deliveries drove automotive revenue, partly offset by lower regulatory-credit sales to other automakers. With volume doing much of the work, pricing, product mix and automotive margins need to be assessed separately.

Energy Revenue

Megapack Expansion Drove Energy Revenue

More Megapack deployments drove energy revenue growth, partly offset by lower pricing and fewer Powerwall deployments. The quarter therefore reflected both higher volume and a changing product mix, while profitability remained sensitive to pricing.

GAAP Operating Income

Revenue Rose, but Operating Profit Fell

Deliveries and revenue grew, but higher research and development spending, including AI and autonomy, and stock-based compensation weighed on operating profit. Lower regulatory credits and vehicle pricing added pressure. As investment in Cybercab, Optimus and AI infrastructure expands, automotive profitability remains central to funding it.

03

VALUATION · RETURN CALCULATOR

P/E · Multiples · Long-Term Investing

Current market cap$1.48T

$375.23 × 3.95B

TTM revenue$103.619B
See calculation

FY2025 Q3 revenue $28.095B
+ FY2025 Q4 revenue $24.901B
+ FY2026 Q1 revenue $22.387B
+ FY2026 Q2 revenue $28.236B
= TTM $103.619B

Current P/S14.3x
Current market cap
$1.48T
TTM revenue
$103.619B

$1.48T ÷ $103.619B = 14.3x

Current P/E396.7x
Current market cap
$1.48T
GAAP TTM net income
$3.736B

$1.48T ÷ $3.736B = 396.7x

GAAP TTM net margin 3.6%

TTM vs. Annualized Revenue

Trailing twelve monthsTTM revenue$103.619B
FY2026 Q2Annualized latest-quarter revenue$112.944BQuarter revenue $28.236B ×4
Company guidanceNo guidance provided

The latest-quarter annualization is a simple quarter-revenue ×4 comparison, not a forecast for the next 12 months.

View high-point comparison
HIGH-POINT COMPARISON

All-Time Closing High

2025-12-16
Sources and calculations checked
Peak close$489.88
Market cap at peak$1.63T
P/S at peak17.0x
P/E at peak320.6x
Trailing twelve months at the peakTTM revenue at the peak$95.633B

Q3 2025Annualized latest quarter at the peak$112.380B

Quarter revenue $28.095B ×4

Public guidance at the peakNo guidance provided

At peakCurrentChange
TTM revenue$95.633B$103.619B+8.4%
Latest quarter$28.095B$28.236B+0.5%

Only information available at the peak is used. The comparison uses Q3 2025 results and the share count publicly available on December 16, 2025. Later results are not applied retroactively.

Key Variables at the Peak

Vehicle sales, energy growth and FSD commercialization were important business variables at the time.

Growth and Profitability Conditions Implied by the Peak Multiple

The high multiple reflected conditions requiring long-run commercialization and earnings expansion.

Close $489.88 × 3.33B shares outstanding = approximately $1.63T market cap at the peak.

CURRENT MARKET CAP REQUIREMENTS

Requirements Implied by the Current Market Cap

Current Market Cap Basis
Implied 2030 Revenue CAGR19.3% annuallyTTM revenue growth +11.8% YoY
Current market cap$1.48T
Assumed 2030 P/S6.8x4.9% assumed net margin × 140.0x assumed P/E
Required 2030 revenue$218.1B

This is the 2030 revenue implied by the current market cap under the displayed valuation assumptions.

Share-count changes and dividends are not included in this calculation.

Conditional Business Scenarios

Conservative · Base · Optimistic
TSLA conditional assumptions
Current TTM$103.619B
Latest-quarter annualized$112.944B
Conservative
Assumed 2030 revenue$182.20BRevenue CAGR from TTM 15.2%
CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 12.7%
Assumed 2030 net margin
3.6%Current 3.6%
Assumed 2030 P/E
135.0xCurrent 396.7x
Converted P/S
4.9x
Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge
Conditional Market Cap$896.4BVs. current -39.5%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares3.61BVs. current -8.6%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$248.45Current $375.23 · -33.8%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return-33.8%Implied Share Value Change -33.8% · Dividend Contribution +0.0 ppAnnualized -9.3%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change
Market Cap
$1.48T$896.4B
Shares
3.95B3.61B
Implied Share Value Change
-33.8%
Shareholder Return Components
Implied Share Value Change
-33.8%
Dividend Contribution
+0.0 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return
-33.8%

Automotive and energy volumes continue to expand, but improvement in per-vehicle economics remains limited and FSD monetization progresses more gradually.

Base
Assumed 2030 revenue$189.80BRevenue CAGR from TTM 16.3%
CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 13.9%
Assumed 2030 net margin
4.9%Current 3.6%
Assumed 2030 P/E
140.0xCurrent 396.7x
Converted P/S
6.8x
Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge
Conditional Market Cap$1.29TVs. current -13.0%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares3.61BVs. current -8.6%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$357.37Current $375.23 · -4.8%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return-4.8%Implied Share Value Change -4.8% · Dividend Contribution +0.0 ppAnnualized -1.1%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change
Market Cap
$1.48T$1.29T
Shares
3.95B3.61B
Implied Share Value Change
-4.8%
Shareholder Return Components
Implied Share Value Change
-4.8%
Dividend Contribution
+0.0 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return
-4.8%

Deliveries, the installed fleet and energy storage expand, while FSD adoption and cost efficiency improve gradually.

Optimistic
Assumed 2030 revenue$198.10BRevenue CAGR from TTM 17.6%
CAGR from annualized latest-quarter revenue 15.1%
Assumed 2030 net margin
5.2%Current 3.6%
Assumed 2030 P/E
145.0xCurrent 396.7x
Converted P/S
7.5x
Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge
Conditional Market Cap$1.49TVs. current +0.6%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares3.61BVs. current -8.6%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$413.14Current $375.23 · +10.1%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+10.1%Implied Share Value Change +10.1% · Dividend Contribution +0.0 ppAnnualized +2.3%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change
Market Cap
$1.48T$1.49T
Shares
3.95B3.61B
Implied Share Value Change
+10.1%
Shareholder Return Components
Implied Share Value Change
+10.1%
Dividend Contribution
+0.0 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return
+10.1%

Vehicle cost efficiency and economies of scale strengthen, with FSD monetization and energy expansion contributing more to overall profitability gains.

This analysis presents long-term valuation scenarios. Scenario inputs are conditional assumptions and are not company guidance or market consensus.

Conditional Shareholder Return Calculator

P/E and P/S are linked through the assumed net margin.

Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge
Conditional Market Cap$1.29TVs. current -13.0%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares3.61BVs. current -8.6%Reflects company-specific share-count changes, including repurchases and issuance.
Conditional Implied Share Value$357.37Current $375.23 · -4.8%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return-4.8%Implied Share Value Change -4.8% · Dividend Contribution +0.0 ppAnnualized -1.1%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change
Market Cap
$1.48T$1.29T
Shares
3.95B3.61B
Implied Share Value Change
-4.8%
Shareholder Return Components
Implied Share Value Change
-4.8%
Dividend Contribution
+0.0 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return
-4.8%

This is a conditional arithmetic result based on the displayed assumptions, not a forecast of future share price.

Original Sources

Tesla Q2 2026 Form 10-Q ↗

Official Tesla IR/SEC materials and market data.

Methodology, Terms and Operating Principles

What is GAAP?

GAAP refers to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. GAAP financial results include items such as stock-based compensation and amortization that companies may adjust out of non-GAAP measures.

Company-Specific Valuation Assumptions

VALUFOUR does not apply the same valuation multiples to every company. Conditional scenarios are analytical assumptions based on each company’s business model, revenue scale, growth rate, profitability, durability of growth and historical valuation range. They are not forecasts or recommendations.

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FSD

Tesla's driver-supervised driving assistance software. This analysis treats paid adoption and subscription monetization as conditional drivers. Tesla does not separately disclose monthly subscribers and legacy upfront purchasers.

CAPEX

Capital spending to build or acquire long-lived assets and infrastructure such as factories, AI compute, data centers and the charging network. It is distinct from current-period operating expenses (OPEX).

Diluted shares

The share count reflects potential dilution from stock-based compensation, options and similar instruments that may affect per-share value. Projected shares in a conditional scenario may differ from current legal shares outstanding due to repurchases, share issuance and the terms of equity awards.