VALUFOUR
Source ↗
NYSE · ORCL

Oracle

Database · Cloud Infrastructure · Enterprise Applications

Results released
2026.09.10
Published
2026.10.18
close$128.38
CURRENT MARKET CAP REQUIREMENTS

Requirements Implied by the Current Market Cap

Current market cap $388.19B · 25.1% assumed net margin × 20.0x assumed P/E
This is the 2030 revenue implied by the current market cap under the displayed valuation assumptions. Share-count changes and dividends are not included in this calculation.

Required 2030 revenue$77.19B
TTM revenue
$71.78B
Implied 2030 Revenue CAGR
2.1%

Conditional Business Scenarios

Conservative · Base · Optimistic
ORCL Conditional Assumptions
Current TTM$71.78B
Conservative
Assumed 2030 revenue$188.1BRevenue CAGR from TTM 31.2%
Assumed 2030 net margin
23.7%Current 26.1%*
Assumed 2030 P/E
18.0xCurrent 20.7x*
Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge
Conditional Market Cap$801.8BVs. current +106.6%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares3.05BVs. current +0.9%Reflects company-specific share-count assumptions.
Conditional Implied Share Value$262.73Current $128.38 · +104.6%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+110.1%Implied Share Value Change +104.6% · Dividend Contribution +5.5 ppAnnualized +23.3%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change
Market Cap
$388.2B$801.8B
Shares
3.02B3.05B
Implied Share Value Change
+104.6%
Shareholder Return Components
Implied Share Value Change
+104.6%
Dividend Contribution
+5.5 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return
+110.1%

AI cloud demand growth slows relatively early, while contract renewal prices normalize quickly. Recurring software revenue supports continued revenue growth, but infrastructure operating costs put some pressure on margins.

Base
Assumed 2030 revenue$193.5BRevenue CAGR from TTM 32.2%
Assumed 2030 net margin
25.1%Current 26.1%*
Assumed 2030 P/E
20.0xCurrent 20.7x*
Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge
Conditional Market Cap$973.2BVs. current +150.7%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares3.05BVs. current +0.9%Reflects company-specific share-count assumptions.
Conditional Implied Share Value$318.89Current $128.38 · +148.4%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+153.8%Implied Share Value Change +148.4% · Dividend Contribution +5.5 ppAnnualized +30.0%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change
Market Cap
$388.2B$973.2B
Shares
3.02B3.05B
Implied Share Value Change
+148.4%
Shareholder Return Components
Implied Share Value Change
+148.4%
Dividend Contribution
+5.5 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return
+153.8%

AI cloud demand and available service capacity continue to expand before growth gradually stabilizes. Recurring revenue from database and application businesses supports stable profitability across the expanded cloud business.

Optimistic
Assumed 2030 revenue$197.2BRevenue CAGR from TTM 32.9%
Assumed 2030 net margin
26.0%Current 26.1%*
Assumed 2030 P/E
22.0xCurrent 20.7x*
Conditional Shareholder Return Bridge
Conditional Market Cap$1.1TVs. current +190.6%Conditional market cap is calculated from the revenue, net margin, and multiple assumptions.
Conditional Projected Shares3.05BVs. current +0.9%Reflects company-specific share-count assumptions.
Conditional Implied Share Value$369.59Current $128.38 · +187.9%Conditional market cap and conditional projected shares determine implied share value.
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+193.3%Implied Share Value Change +187.9% · Dividend Contribution +5.5 ppAnnualized +35.4%
View Conditional Shareholder Return Details

Shows the relationship among market cap, share count, implied share value, and shareholder return.

Implied Share Value Change
Market Cap
$388.2B$1.1T
Shares
3.02B3.05B
Implied Share Value Change
+187.9%
Shareholder Return Components
Implied Share Value Change
+187.9%
Dividend Contribution
+5.5 pp
Conditional Total Shareholder Return
+193.3%

Enterprise use of AI computing remains strong, while cloud service usage and contract renewal prices stay relatively high. This scenario assumes higher growth and profitability than the other cases, supported by greater infrastructure revenue and operating efficiency.

* Current net margin and P/E reflect a one-time gain from the sale of Oracle’s stake in Ampere.

This analysis presents long-term valuation scenarios. Scenario inputs are conditional assumptions and are not company guidance or market consensus.

Conditional Shareholder Return Calculator

Assumed 2030 revenue$193.5B
Assumed 2030 net margin25.1%
Assumed 2030 P/E20.0x
Conditional market cap$973.2B
Conditional Implied Share Value$318.89
Conditional Total Shareholder Return+153.8%

This is a conditional arithmetic result based on the displayed assumptions, not a forecast of future share price.

View high-point comparison
HIGH-POINT COMPARISON

All-Time Closing High

2025-09-10
Sources and calculations checked
Peak close$328.33
Market cap at peak$922.22B
P/S at peak15.6x
P/E at peak74.1x
Trailing twelve months at the peakTTM revenue at the peak$59.02B

FY2026 Q1Annualized latest quarter at the peak$59.70B

Quarter revenue $14.93B ×4

FY2026 Q2Annualized public guidance at the peak$64.67B

Guidance revenue midpoint $16.17B ×4

At peakCurrentChange
TTM revenue$59.02B$71.78B+21.6%
Latest quarter$14.93B$19.34B+29.6%
Public guidance$16.17B$21.20B+31.1%

Information Available at the Time Uses the FY2026 Q1 results and FY2026 Q2 revenue guidance available at the September 10, 2025 close. Historical market cap is estimated using the June 13, 2025 share count disclosed before that date.

Key Variables at the Peak

Large AI infrastructure contracts, RPO growth, data-center expansion and database/cloud revenue growth were key variables.

Growth and Profitability Conditions Implied by the Peak Multiple

The elevated multiple implied that contracted backlog would convert into delivered services and revenue, and that large infrastructure investments would support sustained earnings growth.

Close $328.33 × 2.808833B shares outstanding = approximately $922.22B market cap at the peak.

Original Sources

2026-09-10 · FY2027 Q1 results and FY2027 Q2 revenue guidance
Methodology, Terms and Operating Principles

What is GAAP?

GAAP refers to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. GAAP financial results include items such as stock-based compensation and amortization that companies may adjust out of non-GAAP measures.

Company-Specific Valuation Assumptions

VALUFOUR does not apply the same valuation multiples to every company. Conditional scenarios are analytical assumptions based on each company’s business model, revenue scale, growth rate, profitability, durability of growth and historical valuation range. They are not forecasts or recommendations.

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Future Funding and Common-Share Dilution

The financing structure and terms for future investment remain uncertain. Additional interest costs and share issuance could reduce the per-share values and returns shown here, which reflect only the conversion of existing mandatory convertible preferred shares. Retained cash is not assumed to fund automatic buybacks.